If you are expecting a change in demand different from what the forecast is predicting, learn how to modify your forecast below.
What is the Modify Forecast tool:
Modify Forecast is a new tool where you can take forecasting into your own hands. ForecastRx hybrid forecasting models will continue to provide you with predicted demand for each item, based on past sales, seasonality, and trends, but now you have the ability to adjust the monthly forecast as you see fit. ForecastRx will display the forecast predicted units and year-over-year percent growth which you can override to adjust the growth percentage or the predicted unit sales.
Reasons to modify your forecast:
The most common reason to modify the forecast would be to account for sales changes that the forecasting algorithm wouldn't pick up on, such as one-off promotions, large future sales orders, or a general increase in marketing spend. Modifying your forecast for these events will adjust your stock recommendations so you order enough inventory in enough time.
Modifying your forecast can also be helpful for products with little sales history to analyze. It can be difficult to forecast trends and seasonality for items with less than 2 years of sales history, so you can modify the forecast according to your own analysis.
How to modify your forecast:
Navigate to Manage Company > Advanced > Modify Forecast to get started.
You will first be presented with the "Modified SKU(s)" section, where you will see your previous modifications that you can edit, or add more. You can modify the forecast for items individually or in groups using the same modifications. To edit an existing modification, select the item or group within the grid. To modify additional forecasts, select "Add" in the top right of the grid and select "single" or "multiple" depending on if you want to adjust the forecast for one item or multiple at a time.
You will then be brought to the "Forecasted Change" tab where you can add additional items to modify, name the group for future reference (if modifying multiple SKUs), and then make your changes in the grid. In this grid, you will see the year-over-year forecasted percentage change or forecasted units per month, depending on which view you have toggled on. You can then enter either the number of units you are predicting to sell or your expected percentage change (positive or negative) year-over-year into the month you wish to modify. Your modification will override the forecast, not add to it, and any months that are not modified will keep the forecast projection.
Note: If you are modifying a group of items, the year-over-year forecasted percentage change and forecast units will be shown as an average of the group. When entering a percentage, the entered percentage change will calculate forecasted units for each item individually. When entering a unit override for the group, it will not automatically override each item with the units entered. The units will translate into a percentage increase or decrease that will apply to each item individually as an override.
When you are done making modifications, select "Save" at the bottom of the grid and then run a forecast to recalculate your inventory recommendations.
How to modify your forecast in bulk:
Like other grids in ForecastRx, you will find a Bulk Management dropdown at the top right of the grid. Select "Download Default Required Template" and enter each SKU you wish to modify the forecast for as well as the percent change or unit change for each month. You can only enter modifications as a unit override or a percentage change. Your file can not be a mix of both modification types. If you do not wish to modify a specific month, leave the cell blank. When this is completed, save your file. From the Modify Forecast tab, select Bulk Management > Upload Percentage or Upload Unit > Create New Entries, and import your file to save the changes.
If you are modifying existing data in bulk, select Bulk Management > Download Data then modify your file and save. Return to the Modify Forecast tab, elect Bulk Management > Upload Percentage or Upload Unit > Update Existing Entries, and import your file to save the changes.
How to modify your forecast for kit and component items:
For kits, you will modify their forecast the same as any other item. To modify the forecast of any kit, enter the SKU on the Forecasted Change page and you will see the forecast for that kit. When you modify the forecast of a kit, the changes will also be reflected in the component SKU recommendations, based on the number of units needed for the kit demand.
For components, you can modify the forecast for the individual SKU only if the component is an item for sale. If the item is only used in the assembly of kits, you will not need to modify the forecast for the component because its purchasing recommendation is based on the forecast of the kits, which you can modify the forecast of. If the component is an item for sale, enter the component SKU on the Forecasted Change page to modify its forecast. The forecast for the sales of the component only will be displayed here and can be modified.
How to view your Modified Forecast results:
After modifying and running a forecast, view the Item Card in Purchasing or RestockAMZ to see your new forecast. You will notice the Forecast Recommended Qty is now highlighted in red to indicate that a modified forecast is in use and to bring to your attention that safety stock is not factored into the recommendation.
Your 12-month forecast in the Item Card Forecast Data and Forecast Graph will be updated to reflect your changes, as well as your recommendations in the Purchasing Calculations and Details. The Forecast Report will also reflect your changes to the forecast.
Select the graph icon to open the Item Card to view your forecast. You will notice at the top of the Item Card is a toggle that states "Override Forecast Data ON". When you modify a forecast, this will turn on automatically, but if you would like to see the original forecast results, you can flip it on and off to compare or leave it toggled off if you would like to revert back to the original forecast results.
If you would like to schedule a meeting with a member of the team—let us know, we are here to help!